Get Me to the Church on Time--Well, Mostly, Anyway' (UMAP)

There is an old Latin proverb, common in translation in Germany, that "Those who live closest to the church arrive last" ("Proximus ecclesiae semper vult ultimus esse.") At first glance, this has a nice air of paradox about it: Why should those who are nearest take the longest to get there? Reexpressing the proverb this way makes the misunderstanding clear: People who live close by don't take longer, they just leave home later and give themselves less leeway for delays. There is a reasonable and plausible statistical model for this.

Table of Contents:

INTRODUCTION

THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION MODEL

REFLECTIONS ON THE MODEL ASSUMPTIONS
Uniformly Distributed Travel Times
Exponentially Distributed Travel Times
Travel-Time Distributions in General

APPEAL TO THE READER

ABOUT THE AUTHOR