Polling Pitfalls
Author: Floyd Vest, Clifford Wagner
In 1936, the famous magazine Literary Digest, distributed over 10 million mail-in ballots to assess voter preference for either Franklin Roosevelt or Alfred Landon for President of the United States.
From this survey, the magazine found that 54% of the respondents preferred Alfred Landon and 41% favored Roosevelt. Millions read the prediction that Alfred Landon would defeat Franklin Roosevelt by a wide margin. Instead, Roosevelt won by a landslide, receiving 61% of the vote (Schlesinger). How could such a large survey by a major magazine be so wrong?
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