Probability in Contested Election (UMAP)

In this module the 1975 mayoral election in the city of Flint, Michigan is analyzed. True vote is estimated with an estimator which is used in randomized response models. Students learn an application of a simple discrete probability model, and reinforce knowledge concerning mean, standard deviation, the binomial distribtuion, independence, and convolution.

Table of Contents:

INTRODUCTION

FACTS CONCERNING THE FLINT ELECTION

A MODEL TO ESTIMATE THE TRUE VOTE

CRITIQUE AND COMMENTS

RESOLUTION OF THE PRESENT CASE

EXERCISES

REFERENCES

SOLUTIONS TO EXERCISES