The Spread of Forest Fires (UMAP)

We create a simple discrete probabilistic model for spread of a forest fire. We examine the conditions for which the fire will either die out or spread indefinitely, identifying and bounding a critical value for the probability of transmission of the fire to an immediately adjacent location.

Table of Contents:

INTRODUCTION

FOREST FIRE MODEL

SPREAD OF THE FOREST FIRE

LOWER BOUND FOR pc

UPPER BOUND FOR pc

CONCLUSIONS

AREAS FOR FURTHER EXPLORATION

SOLUTIONS TO SELECTED EXERCISES

APPENDIX

REFERENCES

ABOUT THE AUTHOR