The Will Rogers Effect

The Will Rogers phenomenon came to our attention in an article presented for discussion at Surgery Journal Club at the first author's hospital. The phenomenon was cited as a possible explanation for secular changes in cancer death rates. Our first reaction was: Is this the same Will Rogers (1879-1935) who was a famous American Indian / cowboy / actor / raconteur known for quotes such as "All I know is what I read in the papers"; "Everybody is ignorant. Only on different subjects"; and "My ancestors didn't come over on the Mayflower, but they met the boat"?

Table of Contents:

INTRODUCTION

DISCUSSION
Lead-Time Bias
Stage Migration

HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE

VEHICLE FLEET GAS MILEAGE

CONCLUSIONS

WHY WILL ROGERS?

REFERENCES

ABOUT THE AUTHORS